California’s political landscape is currently teetering on the edge of what many insiders are calling an “electoral train wreck.” Despite the state’s deep-blue reputation, a recent surge in polling for Republican candidates has left the Democratic establishment in a state of high anxiety. With the primary season approaching, the math of California’s “jungle primary” system suggests a scenario that was once thought impossible: a November ballot without a single Democrat at the top of the ticket for Governor.
The Crowded Field: A Split Vote Crisis
The latest data from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) highlights a precarious situation for the Democratic Party. As it stands, two prominent Republicans are leading the pack:
- Steve Hilton: 17% support among likely voters.
- Chad Bianco: 16% support among likely voters.
In contrast, the Democratic vote is being sliced into increasingly smaller segments. U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell and former Representative Katie Porter are currently tied at 13%. Below them, a litany of high-profile Democrats—including former Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Xavier Becerra, and Betty Yee—remain stuck in single digits.
In a “top-two” primary system, the party doesn’t matter; only the raw numbers do. If the Democratic candidates continue to cannibalize each other’s support, Hilton and Bianco could secure the top two slots, effectively locking Democrats out of the general election for the first time in modern history.
Discuss radio host Tavis Smiley, left, moderates the California Governor Candidate Discussion board offered by Empowerment Congress on the California Science Heart in L.A. Jan. 17. The candidates are left to proper: Xavier Becerra, Ian Calderon, Jon Slavet, Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Instances)
The Case for Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV)
This “counterintuitive” polling has reignited a fierce debate over California’s voting mechanics. Reform advocates argue that the current system is no longer representative of the electorate’s actual desires. The primary alternative gaining traction is Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV), also known as Instant Runoff Voting.
How the RCV Mechanism Works
Unlike the traditional “winner-take-all” or “top-two” models, RCV allows for a more nuanced expression of voter preference:
- Ranking: Voters rank candidates in order of preference (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc.).
- The Count: If a candidate receives a majority (50% + 1) of first-choice votes, they win outright.
- The Elimination: If no one hits the majority, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated.
- Redistribution: The votes for the eliminated candidate are automatically transferred to those voters’ second choices.
- Iteration: This process repeats until a majority winner emerges.
Advocates argue that this system prevents “vote splitting.” In the current gubernatorial race, for instance, RCV would allow supporters of the various Democratic candidates to consolidate behind a single choice in the final count, rather than having their votes scattered across five or six losing efforts.
Cesar Chavez talking at an East L.A. rally.
(Larry Bessel / Los Angeles Instances)
The Political Divide: Who Supports Reform?
The push for RCV is not without its detractors. Notably, Governor Gavin Newsom has been a consistent critic of the system. In 2019, he vetoed a bill that would have allowed non-charter cities to adopt RCV, describing it as “too experimental” and famously stating that “the remedy being proposed is far worse than the disease.”
However, proponents like political consultant Ben Austin argue that RCV fosters a more civil political climate. Because candidates must compete for “second-choice” votes from their opponents’ supporters, they are incentivized to build coalitions rather than engage in the “bare-knuckle” partisanship that defines modern campaigns.
Legal and Structural Analysis: The “Top-Two” Problem
From a legal perspective, California’s “top-two” primary (instituted via Proposition 14 in 2010) was designed to promote moderate candidates and increase engagement. However, it created a structural vulnerability known as the “Lockout.”
Legal Analysis of the “Lockout” Phenomenon: The “Lockout” occurs when a majority party runs so many candidates that their collective vote share is split beneath the thresholds of a unified minority party. While the Supreme Court of California has upheld the constitutionality of the top-two system, critics argue it can lead to results that violate the principle of “proportional representation.”
In states like Alaska, a hybrid model has been adopted to mitigate this: a “Top-Four” primary where the finalists are then sorted through Ranked-Choice Voting in the general election. This ensures that the final winner has the broad mandate of a majority, rather than just surviving a fractured primary.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Could there really be no Democrat on the ballot for Governor? A: Yes. Under the current “top-two” rules, if two Republicans receive more votes than any individual Democrat in the June primary, they will be the only two candidates on the November ballot.
Q: Is Ranked-Choice Voting currently used anywhere in California? A: Yes, several “charter cities” have already adopted it, including San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley, and Redondo Beach. However, general-law cities (cities without their own charters) are currently barred from using it due to previous gubernatorial vetoes.
Q: Does RCV favor one party over another? A: Theoretically, no. RCV is party-neutral. It simply ensures that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of the voters who participated. However, it tends to benefit parties with multiple strong candidates who would otherwise split the vote.
Q: What is the “arbitration and class action waiver” mentioned in election newsletters? A: Many digital news services and election updates require users to agree to terms of service that include arbitration clauses. Legally, this means users waive their right to sue in court over data or privacy disputes, instead agreeing to private arbitration.
(Irina Selaru / for the Instances)
Going out
Staying in
And at last … your picture of the day
Lauren Halsey’s ‘sister dreamer’ sculpture park in South Los Angeles comprises sphinxes and carved reliefs alongside Egyptian-style Hathoric columns that includes faces of Halsey’s mentors and members of the family.
(Christina Home / Los Angeles Instances)
Looking Ahead: The June Primary
As the June 2nd primary approaches, the pressure on lower-polling Democrats to withdraw is mounting. State Party Chair Rusty Hicks and other leaders are concerned that if the field does not consolidate, the “Democratic dither” will lead to a November lockout. Whether California moves toward a “more representative” voting system like RCV may depend entirely on how “messy” the results are this fall.
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